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Simulation of Deposits

Local and global estimations of recoverable reserves are often insufficient at the planning stage of a new mine or a new section of an operating mine. For the mining engineer, as well as the metallurgist and chemist, it is often essential to be able to predict the variations of the characteristics of the recoverable reserves at various stages in the operation, e.g., after mining, hauling, stockpiling, etc.

For instance, the choice of mining and haulage methods depends in part on the spatial dispersions of the various ore characteristics. Conversely, the potential recovery rate of the in situ resources will depend, in part, on the mining technology. The choice of mining equipment or of a method of removal of the mined products in a subhorizontal sedimentary deposit may depend on the daily variations in overburden and mineralized thickness. The blending process and the flexibility of the plant will depend on the dispersion of the grades received at all scales (daily, monthly, yearly).

If the in situ reality were perfectly known, the required dispersions, and, thus, the most suitable working methods, could be determined by applying various simulated processes to this reality. Unfortunately, the perfect knowledge of this in situ reality is not available at the planning stages of an operation. The information available at this stage is usually very fragmentary, and limited to the grades of a few samples. The estimations deduced from this information-even through kriging-are far too imprecise for the exact calculations of dispersions that are required.

As it is impossible to estimate the in situ reality correctly in sufficient detail, one simple idea is to simulate it on the basis of a model. In a way, a real deposit and simulations of this deposit are different variants of the same mineralized phenomenon, as characterized by a given model.

Consider, for example, the true grade variable $z_o({/boma x})$ at each point ${/boma x}$ of a deposit. The geostatistical approach consists in interpreting the spatial distribution of the grade $z_o({/boma x})$ as a particular realization of a random function $Z({/boma x})$. This random function is characterized by its first two moments and its distribution function, which are estimated from the experimental data. This model is, thus, suitable for the practical problem of determining various dispersions of the grades in the deposit, since the dispersion variances of $Z({/boma x})$ can be expressed as a function of the second-order moment only-covariance or variogram. A simulation thus consists of drawing another realization $z_s({/boma x})$ of this random function $Z({/boma x})$. The two realizations, real and simulated, differ from each other at given locations but come from the same random function $Z({/boma x})$, the first two moments and the univariate distribution function of which are fixed.

As far as the dispersion of the simulated variable is concerned, there is no difference between the simulated deposit $z_s({/boma x})$ and the real deposit $z_o({/boma x})$. The simulated deposit has the advantage of being known at all points ${/boma x}$ and not only at the experimental location points ${/boma x}_i$. This simulated deposit is also called a ``statistical model'' of the real deposit.



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next up previous contents
Next: Conditioning Up: geo Previous: Case Study: 3-dimensional Kriging   Contents
Rudolf Dutter 2003-03-13